TL;DR: Most elite universities do not publish deferral acceptance rates. Where figures exist, they come from student newspapers and admissions blogs: reported estimates put post deferral admit rates around 5 to 8 percent at Harvard, 5 to 7 percent at Yale, 3 to 5 percent at MIT, and 5 to 10 percent at Duke and Georgetown, against deferral shares ranging from a fifth of the early pool at Duke to roughly three quarters at Harvard.
Sources: Harvard Crimson, Yale Daily News, Duke Chronicle, MIT Admissions Blog, Georgetown Admissions, as compiled in our early deferral guide, 2022 to 2026 cycles. Estimates, not official statistics.
Deferral Acceptance Rates at Top Universities: The Full Table
The table below compiles every figure we consider defensible, drawn from student newspaper reporting, official admissions blogs, and institutional statements, alongside an honest Not published label where no reliable number exists. Rows link to our school by school deferral guides, which cover what each committee tells deferred applicants to send.
| School (early plan) | Share of early applicants deferred | Post deferral admit rate | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard (REA) | Roughly 75 percent (est.) | Roughly 5 to 8 percent (est.) | Harvard Crimson |
| Yale (SCEA) | Roughly 60 percent (est.) | Roughly 5 to 7 percent (est.) | Yale Daily News |
| Princeton (REA) | Not published | Not published | No official data |
| Stanford (REA) | Small by design; most early denials final | Not published | Stanford stated practice |
| MIT (EA) | Roughly 60 percent (est.) | Roughly 3 to 5 percent (est.) | MIT Admissions Blog |
| Georgetown (EA) | All non admitted EA applicants (policy) | Roughly 5 to 10 percent (est.) | Georgetown Admissions |
| Penn (ED) | Not published; pool kept comparatively small | Not published | No official data |
| Columbia (ED) | Not published | Not published | No official data |
| Brown (ED) | Not published | Not published | No official data |
| Cornell (ED) | Not published | Not published | No official data |
| Dartmouth (ED) | Not published | Not published | No official data |
| Duke (ED) | Roughly 20 percent (est.) | Roughly 5 to 10 percent (est.) | Duke Chronicle |
Across schools that defer broadly, the general pattern reported over recent cycles is that 10 to 25 percent of early applicants are deferred rather than denied, and the conversion rate from deferral to admission typically lands between 5 and 15 percent at the most selective universities, with the single digit end of that band applying at the very top of the market.
Why Most Schools Do Not Publish These Numbers
Deferral outcomes sit in the least transparent corner of admissions data. Schools file Common Data Sets covering overall admission statistics, but no CDS field captures deferred applicant outcomes, so disclosure is voluntary and rare. Our College Admissions Transparency Index graded 50 universities on exactly this kind of data disclosure, and the deferral gap is one of the clearest patterns in it: families are asked to make high stakes January decisions on numbers most schools decline to release.
How to Read Deferral Odds Without Fooling Yourself
Three rules keep the numbers honest. First, a deferral rate and a conversion rate mean nothing separately: Harvard defers most of its early pool and converts few, while Stanford defers almost no one, so the identical outcome means different things at each. Second, estimates from student newspapers are directionally useful and precisely unreliable, treat every figure above as a band, not a fact. Third, your personal odds are not the pool average: deferred applicants who submit strong mid year grades and a disciplined letter of continued interest convert at meaningfully better rates than the pool, and silent files convert at worse ones.
What Deferred Applicants Should Do With These Numbers
Use the table for calibration, not consolation. A mid single digit conversion rate says the regular list is the main campaign and the deferral is a live side channel worth one excellent update. Our guide to what to do after an early deferral covers the complete playbook, from the Early Decision II pivot to the mid year report, and each school row above links to the school specific version.
Frequently Asked Questions About Deferral Acceptance Rates
At the most selective universities, reported estimates put post deferral admit rates between roughly 3 and 10 percent, with a broader 5 to 15 percent band across selective schools generally. Most institutions publish no official figure.
Among elite universities, Harvard is reported to defer roughly three quarters of its restrictive early action pool, and Georgetown defers every non admitted early action applicant as a matter of policy.
No, but the math is demanding: reported conversion sits in the mid single digits at the very top schools. A deferral is a live application that deserves one strong update and a fully executed regular round list.
Deferrals let committees compare promising early files against the full regular pool, preserve yield flexibility, and keep strong applicants engaged. At some schools they also soften the early round for recruited groups and school relationships.
Almost never. The figures in circulation come from student newspapers, admissions blog posts, and occasional official statements, which is why every number in our table is labeled as a reported estimate with its source.
Structurally yes. A deferred file gets a complete second committee read before decisions with your updates included, while a waitlisted file waits on enrollment math after decisions are already out.
It varies by school and year. At defer heavy schools the deferred pool converts near or below the regular rate, while at schools that defer selectively a deferral can indicate a file stronger than the regular average.
Check the admissions blog or news office of each university and the Common Data Set for overall figures. For most elite schools no official deferral outcome data exists, a transparency gap our research has documented in detail.
Sources: MIT Admissions, Georgetown Office of Undergraduate Admissions, College Board BigFuture, NACAC, NCES College Navigator, IPEDS, Common Data Set Initiative.
About Oriel Admissions
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